Prediction 2

June 28, 2008

My marathon goal: Boston Qualifying. For males in my 18-34 age group, the required time is an unfriendly 3:10:59 (7:17 pace). So far, solely based on talking to fellow runners, I feel pretty confident I can manage a time between 3:10 (7:15 pace) and 3:30 (8:01 pace), which is still no cakewalk and a time I doubt I can achieve right now 17 weeks before the Marine Corps Marathon, my first marathon.

Over Memorial Day weekend I ran a 20-mile long run just to see whether I could finish it standing. I did, and although it was probably most extreme running route possible in Manhattan (Upper West Side – George Washington Bridge – Palisades Interstate Park, NJ – and back), it was not impressive. My previous longest run had been just 14 miles!

I added a Prediction Table page based on my last few races at the popular distances 5K, 4mi, 5mi, and half marathon. Except for the predicted time based on my disappointing showing at the Brooklyn Half Marathon, the other times indicate I’ll squeak in at just under 3:10. Let’s hope!

Prediction 1

February 11, 2008

I have a habit of soliciting people’s guesses and predictions. So here is mine….

I’ll complete my first marathon in 3 hours 50 minutes (8:50 pace). I figure if my current pace is around 7:50 for a 4-5 mile run, tacking on a minute per mile seems reasonable.

It’s been easy running a few miles at a time, but once I cross 8 miles it’ll be unchartered territory. While the running will turn longer and more difficult, the biggest challenge will be staying focused and to not let my next big idea become my next big distraction. Marathon training will take eight or nine months of almost daily dedication. Knowing this, I started this blog to keep me accountable.

By far, by farrr, my biggest concern is getting hurt. Pretty much anything can be overcome; injuries are the only show-stopper.